"Over the past several years, the Russian Federation has taken a posture that is increasingly antagonistic and hostile toward the US and NATO. Recent Russian military activity and the Kremlin’s stances on Iran and Kosovo indicate a potential for confrontation with the West. We assess that the Kosovo situation in particular could be a catalyst for this confrontation."  

"Kosovo’s quest for independence from Serbia has been largely ignored by Western policymakers and the media, but this volatile issue could quickly become a global crisis, pitting Kosovo and its NATO allies against the Russian Federation..."

1/22/2008 1:09 AM EST

I. Our intelligence analysts have observed several trends and occurrences that indicate the United States and its NATO allies may be preparing to take significant action against the Pakistan-based al Qaeda Central (AQC) and Taliban in 2008 and beyond. In the following estimate, we have outlined these trends and occurrences along with the US and NATO’s likely courses of action.

II. The following attitudes among American and NATO leadership lead our analysts to conclude that the allies will more aggressively in target AQC and the Taliban within Pakistan’s borders:

A) Many in Washington have become increasingly impatient with Musharraf because of: a) his lack of progress in battling these Islamist terrorists; and b) his increasing unpopularity among pro-democracy moderates; both of which have lead to increased instability in the nuclear state. Musharraf will soon travel to meet with the leaders and representatives of the leading NATO powers such as the United States, Britain, and France. These NATO leaders will likely pressure Musharraf to allow a greater NATO presence in his country, and to more aggressively pursue democratic reforms.

B) Many NATO have also become very concerned about the threat posed by AQC, the Taliban, and other Salafi terrorists, who are using Pakistan as a base of operations. All of the major terrorist attacks against the US and Europe starting with the 9/11 can be traced back to Pakistan. Almost all the recently foiled plots in the West can also be traced back to Pakistan, including the British Airline Plot, the shoe-bomb plot, the attacks on US military bases in Germany, and several other recently thwarted attacks. Pakistan also serves as a launching point for the Taliban’s insurgency in Afghanistan.  

III. These following events indicate the US and NATO are preparing to take more aggressive in Pakistan.

1) US VP Cheney visited Pakistan in early 2007, and apparently discussed the formation of a joint, US-Pakistani special-forces unit that would target AQC and its leadership in Pakistan.

continued at http://www.strategicintelligenceestimates.com/foreignintelligence/intelligenceestimates.html

1/15/2008 6:40 PM EST
Analysis and Projections for the 2008 Republican Nomination Process

The Republican Party is facing its most widely contested Presidential-nomination process in over 60 years, as evidenced by the four to five candidates who could possibly win the primaries. This wide field reflects both the fragmentation of Republicans, as well as an overall lack of enthusiasm among the traditional base of the party toward any particular candidate. All of the candidates have divided the various constituencies that have traditionally comprised the Republication coalition. None of the candidates have united all of these groups under a common banner in the way of Ronald Reagan, and to a lesser degree George W. Bush. This fragmentation could very likely subside once the party chooses a nominee, but understanding this current division is essential for projecting the outcome of this process.

The following projections are given with the disclaimer that the current situation is extremely fluid, and our political team is in no way certain about the outcome of these events. However we are relatively confident in the quality of this assessment.

We believe John McCain will most likely be the Republican nominee for a variety of reasons. First, McCain is in very likely to win large states with “less-conservative” Republicans. Such states include California, Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, etc. If McCain can continue to gain momentum and defeat Giuliani in Florida, then these aforementioned states and others will very likely go for McCain. Such a scenario would essentially guarantee a McCain victory, because we believe that a unification of centrist Republicans and independents would overwhelm the heavily fragmented conservative components of the party. Further more, we assess that Giuliani would also win the nomination if he were able to unify this wing of the Republican Party that appears to be trending toward McCain. Perhaps the most unlikely possible scenario would involve an open convention in which McCain and Giuliani attempted to unite their delegates behind the stronger of the two.

Alternative possibilities to this scenario are that these two candidates will divide this wing of the party, and thus enable one of the more socially conservative candidates to take the nomination. We deem this scenario to be less likely for the following reasons. Socially conservative Republicans have been heavily divided amongst Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney. Fred Thompson is the most conservative candidate in the race overall. He has moderately strong support among the conservative base, as well as among some establishment Republicans. Thompson’s shortcomings are that he started very late, and lost a great of deal of support to Huckabee amongst southern conservatives. The more fiscally conservative, national-security conscience southern conservatives have remained loyal to Thompson, while Huckabee has attracted many of the more religion-oriented Evangelical Christians. Huckabee has also gained at least as much support among the so-called “Reagan Democrats,” who represent working-class, blue-collar Republicans who joined the party in the 1980s. We assess that Thompson is the conservative candidate most capable of winning the nomination because he attracts the fiscal conservatives and law-and-order conservatives that Huckabee alienates. However too many potential Thompson supporters may have already committed to Huckabee and Romney.  

Mitt Romney has also done relatively well in attracting his own conservative supporters. Romney’s base is an alliance between some fiscal conservatives and some social conservatives. Romney was originally the candidate of the Republican establishment, an establishment that has since shifted its focus to Fred Thompson, and to a lesser degree John McCain. Romney’s ability to fund the campaign will conceivably keep him in the race to the end, but our political analysts assess that Romney is the most unlikely to win the nomination among these five contenders. We assess a Romney win in Michigan will merely postpone his inevitable defeat. However, a Romney win in Michigan could also damage Thompson’s campaign considerably, and essentially make this a three person race between McCain, Giuliani, and Huckabee. Placing lower than third will in South Carolina will effectively end Thompson’s candidacy.  

continued at: 
http://www.strategicintelligenceestimates.com/uspresidentialelections/projectionsandanalysis.html 

January 10, 2008 2:55 AM EST
Political Analysis regarding the role Iraq will play in US Presidential Elections in 2008

The US efforts in Iraq have been the central point of contention in the past two American national elections. Many political analysts believe the issue will play the same role in the November 2008 Presidential Elections. The current trends on the ground in Iraq, as well as in America’s political rhetoric, indicate that the issue will actually play a significantly less prominent role than it has in recent history.

The substantial reductions in violence over the past four months appear to have robbed the domestic anti-war movement of much of its momentum, influence, publicity, and overall energy. If this trend continues, then it is highly unlikely that the Democratic Party’s Presidential candidate will use the Iraq-war issue to the same degree the party’s candidates used the issue in the 2004 and 2006 elections. We expect that the Democratic candidate will still cite Iraq as a policy failure, but the issue will not be the rallying cry it has been in the recent elections.

We expect that Democratic rhetoric will focus on Iraq as being a failed policy of the past rather than an ongoing crisis requiring immediate action. We expect the Democrats to criticize Iraq policy as a distraction from the war on terrorism. This rationale differs from the previous Democratic arguments that criticized Iraq policy for the human cost, especially as it applied to US troops...

continued at http://www.strategicintelligenceestimates.com/domesticusintelligence/uspolitics.html

January 10, 2008 2:49 AM EST
Intelligence Estimate for President Bush’s Trip to the Middle East and Persian Gulf

President Bush has embarked on an eight-day visit to Israel, the West Bank, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Strategic Intelligence Estimates.com believes this tour is perhaps the most dangerous mission ever carried out by a sitting US President.

Strategic Intelligence Estimates.com was preparing an estimate on the threat to US leaders in light of the recent assassination of Benazir Bhutto. The estimate was set to focus specifically on the threat posed by the Al-Qaeda Network and likeminded organizations. In response to recent Al-Qaeda threats, we will now examine this threat through the spectrum of the President’s upcoming visit.

We assess the most plausible AQ attack scenarios would not target the heavily secured President. AQ is more likely to attack soft targets in the host nations. An attack that is relatively near to the President’s location would presumably be AQ’s ultimate goal in such a scenario. At the very least AQ would try to target the host nation while the President was in country or immediately prior to his arrival. The soft targets would most likely be highly symbolic and/or densely populated. The possibility also exists that AQ may attempt to attack hard targets on the fringes of the President’s security perimeter. If such attacks were carried out they would be a major victory in AQ’s psychological-warfare campaign that is designed to target the symbols of the American power. However, AQ would deliver a devastating blow to the American psyche by targeting the Presidency, which is of course one of the nation’s most enduring symbols. Targeting the Presidency would be embraced as a great attack by Islamist radicals, thus further emboldening their global religious war.

Our overall assessment concludes that the President will be safe on his trip. We believe the President’s security detail will take every precaution possible. However, we believe the President’s tour is relatively dangerous compared to the extremely safe security environment afforded to the Commander-in-Chief within the US. These concerns stem from President’s reliance on foreign security services, a reliance which is an intrinsic component of all international travel carried out by US officials. While our analysis assumes that the leadership of these nations will act appropriately, we are concerned about the high level of Islamist radicals in the region. Our ultimate fears revolve around scenarios in which Islamist cells are able to penetrate the security services of the aforementioned Arab nations.

continued...http://www.strategicintelligenceestimates.com/foreignintelligence/intelligenceestimates.html