Posted by
John Robie on Thursday, January 10, 2008 6:27:20 AM
January 10, 2008 2:49 AM EST
Intelligence Estimate for President Bush’s Trip to the Middle East and Persian Gulf
President Bush has embarked on an eight-day visit to Israel, the West Bank, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Strategic Intelligence Estimates.com believes this tour is perhaps the most dangerous mission ever carried out by a sitting US President.
Strategic Intelligence Estimates.com was preparing an estimate on the threat to US leaders in light of the recent assassination of Benazir Bhutto. The estimate was set to focus specifically on the threat posed by the Al-Qaeda Network and likeminded organizations. In response to recent Al-Qaeda threats, we will now examine this threat through the spectrum of the President’s upcoming visit.
We assess the most plausible AQ attack scenarios would not target the heavily secured President. AQ is more likely to attack soft targets in the host nations. An attack that is relatively near to the President’s location would presumably be AQ’s ultimate goal in such a scenario. At the very least AQ would try to target the host nation while the President was in country or immediately prior to his arrival. The soft targets would most likely be highly symbolic and/or densely populated. The possibility also exists that AQ may attempt to attack hard targets on the fringes of the President’s security perimeter. If such attacks were carried out they would be a major victory in AQ’s psychological-warfare campaign that is designed to target the symbols of the American power. However, AQ would deliver a devastating blow to the American psyche by targeting the Presidency, which is of course one of the nation’s most enduring symbols. Targeting the Presidency would be embraced as a great attack by Islamist radicals, thus further emboldening their global religious war.
Our overall assessment concludes that the President will be safe on his trip. We believe the President’s security detail will take every precaution possible. However, we believe the President’s tour is relatively dangerous compared to the extremely safe security environment afforded to the Commander-in-Chief within the US. These concerns stem from President’s reliance on foreign security services, a reliance which is an intrinsic component of all international travel carried out by US officials. While our analysis assumes that the leadership of these nations will act appropriately, we are concerned about the high level of Islamist radicals in the region. Our ultimate fears revolve around scenarios in which Islamist cells are able to penetrate the security services of the aforementioned Arab nations.
continued...http://www.strategicintelligenceestimates.com/foreignintelligence/intelligenceestimates.html