January 4, 2007 4:00 P.M. EST
Who Killed Benazir Bhutto?
By late November 2007, our analysts had determined that another assassination attempt on Bhutto was nearly inevitable. We had also determined that Al Qaeda Central (AQC) was very likely plotting to assassinate the former prime minister. Our determination was based on the several factors including: 1) AQC’s previous threats and assassination attempts against Bhutto; 2) recent threats made by AQC’s leader Ayman al Zawihiri; 3) Zawihiri and his Egyptian network’s long history of assassinating pro-Western leaders, as indicated by their ties to the Sadaat assassination.
Strategic Intelligence Estimates.com has determined with a high degree of probability that Zawihiri and other members of AQC orchestrated the attack that killed Benazir Bhutto. The attack followed AQC’s M.O. of using highly coordinated attacks involving suicide bombers. The gunman who shot Bhutto was immediately followed by a suicide bomber. This suicide bombing was designed to increase the terrorists’ chances of success, while also killing more of Bhutto’s supporters and preventing the other assassin from being captured alive.
AQC’s culpability is also indicated by its longstanding links to radical Islamists within the ISI and the Pakistani armed forces. Several factors indicate that elements the ISI were complicit in this attack. One such indicator is the high level of security surrounding the event. The fact that two assassins were able to penetrate Bhutto’s inner circle indicates that the terrorists may have had assistance from individuals providing security for the event. The fact that the assassins were in a position to attack during an apparently spontaneous opportunity indicates the conspirators either had multiple teams throughout the venue, or they had foreknowledge of Bhutto’s movements. Both scenarios suggest that elements of the Pakistani government’s security conspired with the attackers. AQC is one of the few organizations with the contacts and capabilities to carry out this attack.
We believe that AQC has not issued a definitive claim of responsibility because they want to cause ambiguity that will make moderate Pakistanis suspicious of Musharraf. This suspicion will help foment the instability that AQC needs operate effectively, as it strives to gain influence and power within the nuclear nation. AQC’s ability to instigate mistrust and hostility toward the Musharraf government is typical of the terrorist network’s proclivity to use terrorism as a form of psychological warfare.
The Pakistani government has also contributed to the uncertainty surrounding AQC’s role in the assassination. Musharraf’s government is hesitant to acknowledge the degree to which AQC and other foreign terrorists operate within Pakistan. Therefore Musharraf’s government has blamed Baitullah Mehsud, a highly visible Taliban commander from the Waziristan region of Pakistan. Blaming Mehsud enables Musharraf’s government to continue their denials of an extensive AQC presence within Pakistan's borders.
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