1/15/2008 6:40 PM EST
Analysis and Projections for the 2008 Republican Nomination Process

The Republican Party is facing its most widely contested Presidential-nomination process in over 60 years, as evidenced by the four to five candidates who could possibly win the primaries. This wide field reflects both the fragmentation of Republicans, as well as an overall lack of enthusiasm among the traditional base of the party toward any particular candidate. All of the candidates have divided the various constituencies that have traditionally comprised the Republication coalition. None of the candidates have united all of these groups under a common banner in the way of Ronald Reagan, and to a lesser degree George W. Bush. This fragmentation could very likely subside once the party chooses a nominee, but understanding this current division is essential for projecting the outcome of this process.

The following projections are given with the disclaimer that the current situation is extremely fluid, and our political team is in no way certain about the outcome of these events. However we are relatively confident in the quality of this assessment.

We believe John McCain will most likely be the Republican nominee for a variety of reasons. First, McCain is in very likely to win large states with “less-conservative” Republicans. Such states include California, Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, etc. If McCain can continue to gain momentum and defeat Giuliani in Florida, then these aforementioned states and others will very likely go for McCain. Such a scenario would essentially guarantee a McCain victory, because we believe that a unification of centrist Republicans and independents would overwhelm the heavily fragmented conservative components of the party. Further more, we assess that Giuliani would also win the nomination if he were able to unify this wing of the Republican Party that appears to be trending toward McCain. Perhaps the most unlikely possible scenario would involve an open convention in which McCain and Giuliani attempted to unite their delegates behind the stronger of the two.

Alternative possibilities to this scenario are that these two candidates will divide this wing of the party, and thus enable one of the more socially conservative candidates to take the nomination. We deem this scenario to be less likely for the following reasons. Socially conservative Republicans have been heavily divided amongst Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney. Fred Thompson is the most conservative candidate in the race overall. He has moderately strong support among the conservative base, as well as among some establishment Republicans. Thompson’s shortcomings are that he started very late, and lost a great of deal of support to Huckabee amongst southern conservatives. The more fiscally conservative, national-security conscience southern conservatives have remained loyal to Thompson, while Huckabee has attracted many of the more religion-oriented Evangelical Christians. Huckabee has also gained at least as much support among the so-called “Reagan Democrats,” who represent working-class, blue-collar Republicans who joined the party in the 1980s. We assess that Thompson is the conservative candidate most capable of winning the nomination because he attracts the fiscal conservatives and law-and-order conservatives that Huckabee alienates. However too many potential Thompson supporters may have already committed to Huckabee and Romney.  

Mitt Romney has also done relatively well in attracting his own conservative supporters. Romney’s base is an alliance between some fiscal conservatives and some social conservatives. Romney was originally the candidate of the Republican establishment, an establishment that has since shifted its focus to Fred Thompson, and to a lesser degree John McCain. Romney’s ability to fund the campaign will conceivably keep him in the race to the end, but our political analysts assess that Romney is the most unlikely to win the nomination among these five contenders. We assess a Romney win in Michigan will merely postpone his inevitable defeat. However, a Romney win in Michigan could also damage Thompson’s campaign considerably, and essentially make this a three person race between McCain, Giuliani, and Huckabee. Placing lower than third will in South Carolina will effectively end Thompson’s candidacy.  

continued at: 
http://www.strategicintelligenceestimates.com/uspresidentialelections/projectionsandanalysis.html