Posted by
John Robie on Tuesday, January 22, 2008 1:57:08 AM
1/22/2008 1:09 AM EST
I. Our intelligence analysts have observed several trends and occurrences that indicate the United States and its NATO allies may be preparing to take significant action against the Pakistan-based al Qaeda Central (AQC) and Taliban in 2008 and beyond. In the following estimate, we have outlined these trends and occurrences along with the US and NATO’s likely courses of action.
II. The following attitudes among American and NATO leadership lead our analysts to conclude that the allies will more aggressively in target AQC and the Taliban within Pakistan’s borders:
A) Many in Washington have become increasingly impatient with Musharraf because of: a) his lack of progress in battling these Islamist terrorists; and b) his increasing unpopularity among pro-democracy moderates; both of which have lead to increased instability in the nuclear state. Musharraf will soon travel to meet with the leaders and representatives of the leading NATO powers such as the United States, Britain, and France. These NATO leaders will likely pressure Musharraf to allow a greater NATO presence in his country, and to more aggressively pursue democratic reforms.
B) Many NATO have also become very concerned about the threat posed by AQC, the Taliban, and other Salafi terrorists, who are using Pakistan as a base of operations. All of the major terrorist attacks against the US and Europe starting with the 9/11 can be traced back to Pakistan. Almost all the recently foiled plots in the West can also be traced back to Pakistan, including the British Airline Plot, the shoe-bomb plot, the attacks on US military bases in Germany, and several other recently thwarted attacks. Pakistan also serves as a launching point for the Taliban’s insurgency in Afghanistan.
III. These following events indicate the US and NATO are preparing to take more aggressive in Pakistan.
1) US VP Cheney visited Pakistan in early 2007, and apparently discussed the formation of a joint, US-Pakistani special-forces unit that would target AQC and its leadership in Pakistan.
continued at http://www.strategicintelligenceestimates.com/foreignintelligence/intelligenceestimates.html